ONLINE
KNOWN HISTORICAL CRISES
Event Start Date Peak Date Drawdown VIX Peak
Dot-com Crash 2000-03-10 2002-10-09 49.1% N/A
2008 Financial Crisis 2008-09-15 2009-03-09 56.8% 80.86
Flash Crash 2010 2010-05-06 2010-05-06 9.0% N/A
European Debt Crisis 2011-08-05 2011-10-03 19.4% N/A
China Fears 2015 2015-08-18 2016-02-11 14.2% N/A
COVID-19 Crash 2020-02-20 2020-03-23 33.9% 82.69
2022 Bear Market 2022-01-03 2022-10-12 25.4% N/A
CURVATURE ANALYSIS
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METHODOLOGY

> The Geometrical Macroeconomics Framework analyzes market structure using:

  • Correlation Networks: Assets as nodes, correlations as edges
  • Ricci Curvature: Measures network "shape" - clustered vs fragmented
  • Crisis Prediction: Negative curvature indicates fragile structure

> Key hypothesis: Curvature declines before crises as market structure becomes fragile